Who remembers the Carnac bit Johnny Carson used to do on the Tonight Show? (Yes, there was a tonight show before Jay Leno and certainly before Jimmy Fallon!)

It was a bit with Carson wearing a silly cape and hat, claiming he had mental powers which allowed him to determine the contents of a sealed envelope. Of course it was a comedy bit, but the truth is, for the most part, all of these “prediction” pieces are a form of comedy.

There are so many variables and so much that can change week-to-week that trying to make season-based predictions is like throwing darts at a mile-wide dart board… with about a million variables and expecting the answer to be something predictable.

The Prognosticator

So of course, after ridiculing the whole process, I feel it’s critical that I jump on board and make my prognostications for the Steelers 2016 season. Let’s call this column “The Prognosticator” because, well, you know, I don’t want to sound silly or something.

Alright Nation, let’s get to it!

Ben Roethlisberger plays 16 Games

Let’s start out with the craziest of the crazy predictions.

Yes, you can throw things, and scream and tell me I’m nuts, I admit I’m nuts! I’m a glass half full guy! I don’t live in my fears! And while you think I’m crazy, there is a method to my madness.

Ben played 16 games in 2013 and 2014, so it’s not something that is unheard of. The offensive line will be better than last year just by having Pouncey there, and that should provide the opportunity for Ramon Foster to continue to help Alejandro Villanueva progress.

There is precedence that says Ben can make it through a full season, and in order for this team to get where they want to be, it’s going to be important to keep Ben upright and in the game.

That upright thing, meaning avoiding sacks, has been so much better the last few seasons it’s ridiculous.

In 2009, Ben was sacked 50 times.

We all know he’s absorbed more sacks than anyone in the years he’s played, but last year he was sacked 20 times.

That’s huge!

The O Line is better than it was, and growing together as a unit. There is reason for optimism here, and I think Ben plays a full slate.

Antonio Brown catches over 160 passes

I was going to title this Antonio Borwn breaks Marvin Harrison’s single season receptions record, but since I think he will catch 160+ balls, that seemed, well, obvious!   Last year AB had 136 catches for 1834 yards. Statistically speaking that is one of the best years a receiver has ever had: in league history.

He’s also improved every year over the past 4 years (66, 110, 129 and 136.) Last year he had that year without Ben for several games, or parts of games. When Ben wasn’t in the game, his production dipped considerably – and yet he still had that kind of year! With Ben in the game AB averaged nearly 10 catches a game (9.991) and without Ben he averaged just over 4 (4.25.)

That’s quite a swing in production.

Since my first prediction was that Ben plays 16 games, assume that further predictions are predicated on that. That means that if AB and Ben don’t improve their hookups this year, Antonio still has the chance to go for 158 catches (9.91 * 16 games = 158.56, and I down because I don’t see how you can make a half catch.)

That was with Martavis getting a good number of targets.

AB is going to be the main focus, and I think we have the chance to see the greatest receiving season ever. Hell, he might hit 165. Or maybe that’s just the Neuro Sonic I just drank talking.

AB breaks single season receiving yards record

This follows the last prediction with unwavering logic.

Look, if AB catches 160 balls, there is no way he does it for less than 2000 yards. To break the record, that’s what it’s going to take, a 2000-yard season (Calvin Johnson has the record with 1,964 yards.) With Ben in the game last year, AB averaged 133.25 yards per game; without him it was only 58.75. Again, a huge drop in production.

Since Ben is going to play 16 games, without any improvement he should get to around 2,132 yards. That’s what his pace was last year, and I think this year it’s higher. Not only does AB hit 2000 yards, and breaks Johnson’s record, he smashes it to smithereens and passes 2300 yards! (Ok, that really might be the Neuro Sonic talking).

AB scores 15+ TD’s

The one thing that AB hasn’t done as much of as some of the other great Steelers receivers, is catch touchdowns. He’s been better than the last two years (13, 10) but on average, for his career, he catches about 6 TD passes a year.

I think this year that changes in a big way.

Again, with Ben sticking around for a full slate of games, I think AB catches a boatload of TD’s. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility that he breaks 20 TD’s.

With as many catches, and targets as I think he’s going to see, is it possible that he could even break Randy Moss‘ record of 23 TD’s in a single season? That would be something, and it’s within the realm of possibilities.

The Neuro Sonic may be wearing off, so I’m not ready to jump to that conclusion, but I think he definitely catches 15 or more.

Ben throws for 5100 Yards

If Ben had played all 16 games last year, at the rate he was throwing the ball, (328 yards per game) he would have hit 5, 250 yards passing.

Shoot, this prediction isn’t even a stretch if the season goes as predicted.

You might think “Well you are saying AB his going to break all kinds of records and stuff, so why not just say Ben sets the single season passing mark by hitting 5500 yards?”

Woah, woah, slow down Nation – I’m crazy, but I’m not that crazy! Ben has never broken 5000 yards, although he’s come close (4952 in 2014) so let’s not go overboard. One thing many analysts are saying is that they think the Steelers will be more run focused this year. I simply do not agree. I think the game has changed, and this is Ben’s team. It’s loaded with weapons at the receiving slots, and even our #1 running back is a huge threat as a receiver.

The one thing I struggle with is the tight end position. Ladarius Green can’t come back until game 7, at the earliest, and that means that the tight end spot is going to be suspect until then, and since we haven’t seen a single snap from Green yet, probably for a few games after that. Still, Ben has weapons, and those weapons can run.

It’s not just the completions that are going to get Ben over 5,000 yards, it’s the YAC (yards after catch). This group of receivers is going to YAC all over the place, and Ben is going to be the lucky recipient of those extra yards. I think this offense will be balanced, but I also think Ben easily averages over 300 a game, and if he does that, he’ll break 5100 yards.

Ben throws for 40+ TD’s

I know, you’re asking yourselves if I just got off a flight from Colorado and if I’m still hazy from the contact buzz. I’m not, and I didn’t. Ben’s best seasons had him hitting on only 32 passes that resulted in 6 points (2014 and 2007). Why in the world would anyone think he’s suddenly going to add 8+ TD’s to those totals? Let me ‘splain – no wait, it will take too long – let me sum up:

AB, Wheat, Coates, Hey-Bey, Rogers and Le’veon Bell

If Ben can’t connect with those guys for 40 scores this year I’ll eat my hat (no, I won’t actually, I like my hat and I don’t think I can replace it, but I’ll be really really surprised!)

Your AFC MVP – Ben Roethlisberger

This might be a stretch, but the time is ripe for Ben to take this award home finally! He’s starting to get the respect he deserves, and if he hits the numbers I think he will, whose going to argue that he doesn’t deserve it (Hey! You – the guy yelling “AB! AB!” in the background! Sit down! Receivers don’t win MVP, even if they maybe should sometimes.)

I honestly believe this will be Ben’s best season ever, and with it I think will come recognition and possibly a really nice piece of hardware to go with a really nice ring.

Le’veon Bell Stays Healthy

“Juice” really needs to cut it loose this year. He has really hurt himself, and as much as I love the guy (for those not following some of my other craziness, he was really nice to my daughter so he gets bonus points with me) he has had, well, let’s just say, a “interesting” offseason.

He needs to stay on the field, and he needs to produce.

The one thing nobody can criticize about Le’veon is his work ethic. The dude puts in the work. He looked fit and ready to go in the limited snaps he took in preseason. I don’t believe he needs the extra three games to make him 100%, I think he is right now.

The thing about Bell is that the injuries he’s sustained aren’t the kind of injuries that would make you call a guy “injury prone.” (Neither are Pouncey’s, so hush!)

They are freak accidents.

If we can keep him away from Burfict, then I think he’s fine.

During that Bengals game in December I would get Rosey Nix, Foster, Pouncey and DeCastro and tell them “Burfict doesn’t get near Le’veon.” Run some sweeps with Pouncey pulling and taking Burfict out the play by knocking him out the other side of his ear hole. (No no, I’m not mad, I’m just saying that would be a really good block ya know?)

Le’veon Bell – 2000+ Yards From Scrimmage

He’s out for 3 games, but hey, that’s one less than he was supposed to be out last year.  Again, assuming he stays healthy then I think it’s not at all out of line to suggest that he can rush for over 1,000 yards in his 13 games, and I think he will get 1,000+ yards in receptions as well. So it’s not just that he gets over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, it’s that he hits 1,000 yards in both rushing and receiving.

It’s going to happen – mark my words. (And as I alluded to in the first prediction about Le’Veon, it kind of needs to. He needs to make a huge statement in this contract year).

Steelers Offense – 30+ Points

I should have included this after all those offensive player predictions because if all those things happen, this is a given!

This offense is primed for a record breaking season, and I honestly do not think that the loss of Martavis is going to cause a dramatic drop in the offense. Yes, people had to respect that speed at the outside, but remember, he was targeted 92 times and caught 50 balls last year. Those 50 catches amounted to 765 yards. I think it’s possible that Eli Rogers and Markus Wheaton more than make up for those lost yards and catches, and maybe in fewer targets!

Let’s not forget Sammie Coates, who can help us make up for that deep threat, and once we finally get Ladarius Green on the field – Oh My God! Defensive coordinators are going to be having sleepless nights once this team appears on their schedule!

Add to that Le’veon and DeAngleo and a kicker who is flat out “money” (Yes, I mean you Chris Boswell) and there is every chance we hit, and surpass that targeted goal.

Conclusion

What more can I say? I know many of you out in the Nation are rolling your eyes at me and accusing me of being the ultimate homer.

Hey, I live in New Jersey! (I know, I know, that doesn’t matter).

Yes, I see the world through a pair of black and gold glasses, and my love for all things Steelers verges on being an obsession, but I can be somewhat impartial. Everything I said can be legitimately backed up by simply looking at the numbers from last year and from watching the performances that were turned in during the preseason. This is going to be a fun season, and in just 6 more days it all starts!

Until next time Nation!