Nation, there have been a lot of great articles about this week’s game.

Joe Kuzma wrote a terrific piece on why the Patriots success has hinged on all the “bad” quarterbacks they’ve faced.

Eric Herrmann wrote a couple of nice pieces on how the Steelers have dominated rematches and how these aren’t the same teams they were in week 7.

Look, give the Patriots their due. They have beaten the teams that were put in front of them, and in most cases, beaten them handily. That doesn’t discount Joe’s points about the bad quarterbacking, and how that could stack the statistics to make them look even better than they are.

Joe makes a lot of good points, and valid ones.

So does Eric.

The Steelers have fared well in rematches, winning all of them so far this year. It’s been fodder for broadcasters and media folks to say “it’s tough to beat the same team twice in the same year” when talking about inter-division matchups, or rematches in the playoffs. It’s true, it’s not easy to sweep a team, because they adjust to what happened in the first game, and even more than that, the season itself is extremely situational. Injuries, suspensions, rotations and more all play a part in who a team was at one point in the season vs. who they are now.

That couldn’t be more true than it is this week.

This Steelers team is nothing like the team that the Patriots faced in week 7. So, without further ado, let’s get to it Nation!

Then vs. Now

I’m not going to rehash all of Eric’s article, but I do want to look at just a couple things.

Let’s start with the defense. The Steelers were still adjusting to the truth of Cam Heywards injury, and the fact that he was gone for the season, and the state of the defense was definitely in flux.

Just look at this list of snap counts from that game, versus last week against Kansas City:

Player	Patriots	Kansas City
James Harrison	42%	95%
Artie Burns	61%	98%
Sean Davis	5%	98%
Bud Dupree	0%	100%
Ryan Shazier	56%	100%

Nation, those are some key parts of this defense, and those are some really big changes in who is playing, and how much.

The best part, is those changes sure have been a change for the better.

On offense, it’s pretty easy to focus on the number one difference – Landry Jones versus Ben Roethlisberger, but there is more to it than just that.

Chris Hubbard was starting for Marcus Gilbert, and while he did a good job, he had some help that Gilbert wouldn’t have needed. Le’Veon Bell only ran the ball 21 times, whereas last week against the Chiefs, he toted the rock 30 times. Considering that Hubbard was starting at right tackle, we couldn’t bring him in as part of the “jumbo” package where he reports eligible.

These are big differences, and in my mind, they favor the Steelers.

Patriots Defensive Front vs. Steelers O-Line

Everyone is just tripping over themselves to point to how all-around great the Patriots are, but as Joe pointed out in his article, maybe they aren’t?

The truth is, the Patriots defensive front hasn’t played a single top rushing team this season. The best offensive line they faced was the Ravens, and well, the Ravens rush game is weak, despite their line.

So is it really a big deal that they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher this season?

I say it’s more surprising that they haven’t been more dominant against the run! Teams are throwing against the Patriots more than they are running, because they are often playing from behind. If our O-line (currently ranked 3^rd in the NFL by Pro Football Focus’s wizards of statistics) plays the way they have been, and I see no reason to think they won’t, Le’Veon Bell will run for more than 100 yards.

I think he could run for 150 yards, again!

Which brings me to my next point…

Ring the Bell

Ride the hot hand fellas.

There has been no hotter hand lately than Le’Veon Bell. Two weeks in a row he has set Steelers franchise records for single game post-season rushing performances, setting it at 167 against the Dolphins, then breaking it again the following week with 170 against the Chiefs.

I won’t be stunned (although I’m not guaranteeing this the way I did last week) if he breaks it again.

Look for the Steelers to open the game much the way they did against KC, passing the ball to open the run up. I expect the Patriots to stack the box, as they have all year, and I expect Ben to make them pay a time or two, and when he does, they will have to back off.

That will open up lanes for Le’Veon.

If the Bell is tolling on Sunday, it’s tolling for a Steelers Super Bowl berth!

Dupree and Uncle James

Since the Steelers gave up on the idea of a linebacker rotation, inserting Bud Dupree and James Harrison as the men on the edge, the Steelers have not lost a game.

Not. One. Game.

Uncle James has gone from having 2 sacks (both against Baltimore) during the first 9 games to throwing up an additional 5.5 sacks over the past 8 games. He was averaging just over 1.1 tackle per game during those first 9 games, and now he’s averaging 3.9.

Uncle James has been a force, and so has Bud Dupree: 5 sacks in 8 games. 26 tackles, and some of the most devastating hits we’ve seen in a long time.

Just ask Matt Moore.

The combination of Uncle James (and if we win, I promise to explain that nickname) and Bud Dupree, has really stabilized the edge for this defense, and allowed the defense to really progress on a very high upward slope.

They will need to get to Brady, repeatedly. They don’t always have to sack him, but they cannot allow what happened in that first game, where more than once, old, slow as molasses Tom Brady escaped the pocket to run for a first down.

That won’t happen this time around.

Steelers Run Defense

Mr. “I’m going to take my ball and go home because you like Le’Veon more than me”, LeGarrette Blount managed to run all over us the last time around. 24 for 127 and an average of 5.3 yards per carry.

But just look at that table I listed above. Limited Shazier. Limited Harrison. No Bud, and barely any Sean Davis.

This run defense has improved vastly, and a large part of that is due to the addition of Sean Davis as their starting safety. He has been near or at the top of the tackling chart every single week since he was installed as the starter.

Stephon “Do it” Tuitt has also improved, and become a force on the line. Javon Hargrave has been extremely effective in tacking on two, and sometimes three blockers.

The run defense has been much improved since last time around, and they are not going to allow Blount and the Patriots to run the way they did last time.

They held Ajayi to less than 50 yards. They held the Chiefs as a whole to 61 yards.

They will hold the Patriots to less than 100 yards rushing.

Conclusion

Nation, Joe Kuzma writes the “Bold Predictions” piece, not me. Still I’m going to go out on a limb here (a really big, very stable and substantial limb). If the Steelers improve their red zone performance, if they limit their turnovers, and if they can run the ball, this game will not be close, and the Steelers will get a trip to Houston.

These are not the powerhouse Patriots of old. They are still dangerous, and they are still tough to beat in New England; but they are beatable, and the Steelers are the one team they did not want to have come to Foxborough.

I think they show everyone why that was the case on Sunday.

Steelers win 42-28.

“I….got a feeling….”

Until next time Nation!