Looking back at our “way too early” Steelers defensive predictions

It’s hard to believe it, but its been since June when myself and Eric Herrmann made our “way too early” predictions for the 2016 season.

Sometimes those predictions turn out to be way off the mark, while other times, we can give ourselves a high-five for hitting the bullseye. We had a little bit of both, where some of our predictions were good, and others, not so much.

Below are the categories and players we picked.

Biggest Addition?

Who will be the biggest acquisition for the Steelers defense in 2016?

Can’t say that neither of us were wrong here, but Eric nailed this pick. Once Sean Davis entered the starting lineup, the Steelers wouldn’t lose (that is, until the AFC Championship game.)

Davis was so good, he was named to the NFL’s All-Rookie team at his position.

Hargrave was the first Steelers rookie to start on the defensive line in over 22 years.

Overachiever

Who will rise above the level expected of them?

And while neither of us were wrong above, both of us kind of missed the mark here.

I felt like Robert Golden was resigned last offseason to bridge the gap for a rookie like Sean Davis. I also felt that Golden was better than the previous year’s starter, Will Allen.

Golden received some early playing time, but that was due to Senquez Golson’s injury forcing Davis to play nickel corner, while Will Gay played the outside until Artie Burns was ready.

Once Burns cracked the starting lineup, Davis moved to safety and the show was over for Golden.

Chickillo had some decent showings throughout the year, but he too found himself stuck as the odd-man out of a linebacker rotation which no longer “rotated”, once Bud Dupree came off IR.

Thus, neither Golden or Chickillo “overachieved”.

Underachiever

Which defensive player will fail to live up to fans’ expectations?

Oops!

Let me clarify something I said back in that original article:

“Steelers Nation is going to hate me for my picks in both editions of this topic. I’m going with James Harrison here. He’s turned into a situational player, and hasn’t logged as much time as in the past. That will keep the Silverback fresh, but also limit his production at the same time; very similar to how I felt about DeAngelo Williams in the offensive portion of this discussion.

And I wasn’t necessarily wrong either. Harrison only finished the season with 5 sacks, but he was a terror throughout the latter portion of the season, which continued into the postseason (where he accumulated 2.5 sacks in 3 games).

Another way of saying this is, while I think we’re all surprised by what Harrison accomplished, we wouldn’t have been surprised if a 38-year-old player didn’t accomplish those things.

As for Eric’s Dupree pick, that ended up being more of a case of an injury slowing him down, than his actual play, as to why he “underachieved”.

That’s why we both disliked making these picks for “Which defensive player will fail to live up to fans’ expectations?”

Hot Seat

Which Steeler is under the most pressure to perform this season?

If this wasn’t more accurate than not, Jarvis Jones feel from grace after being the Steelers first round draft choice in 2013. The team failed to exercise his fifth-year option, and it doesn’t appear they’re interested in having him back at all.

Jones was actually listed as inactive late in the season, following Dupree’s activation from Injured Reserve. Yet, the Steelers still gave him opportunities to prove everyone wrong, as one of the few linebackers off of the bench to spell Harrison late in the year.

As for Cockrell, he was better than advertised and had been one of Pro Football Focus’ higher-graded corners early on, and at other times throughout 2016. He was on the “hot seat” due to Golson’s return (which never happened, but we made these predictions prior to his injury) and Pittsburgh’s drafting of Artie Burns. He was still able to retain his starting job, but like others before him (Brice McCain, Atwon Blake) Cockrell may still not be the answer the Steelers are looking for.

Roster Bubble

Which player is at most jeopardy of losing their roster spot?

Thomas kept his job though we thought he might not make it out of camp. However, due to his special teams play and a thin secondary depth chart, Shamarko made the team.

Yet, he didn’t play on defense, where former practice squad player Jordan Dangerfield started over him.

That’s how far “Troy Polamalu‘s replacement” had fallen.

X-Factor

Who will be the breakout star with the Steelers defense this season?

When this was written, I was expecting Dupree and Jones to play the lion’s share of snaps, as LB coach Joey Porter publicly stated some time around OTA’s (or shortly after).

When Dupree was placed on Injured Reserve to start the season, that breakout expectation somewhat faded. However, Dupree still lit the league on fire for the last five weeks, registering 4.5 sacks: the second-best to Harrison’s 5, which is incredible, considering Dupree only started 4 games. (He appeared in the Indianapolis and Cleveland games briefly, before gaining more playing time and eventually never coming off of the field in December)

Stephon Tuitt continues to make strides. The defensive end has 4.0 sacks on the year, along with 3 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles. He’s not in Pro Bowl territory yet, but nor was Cam Heyward at this stage in his career. If Tuitt continues his ascension, his name could be listed among some of the Steelers greats.

Listen in for more of our comments

We also dedicated an entire episode of the Steel City Underground Podcast to this topic. Listen using the YouTube clip below, or subscribe to the SCU Podcast with your favorite service.


Suggested articles from our sponsors