Never Say Never: 5 Players who fell in the 2016 NFL Draft
Never say never.
Every single year people argue who their team will draft. Often the conversation involves phrases like:
“He’ll never fall.”
“He’ll be long gone.”
“No way he makes it that far.”
Everybody, including myself, is guilty of this at one point or another and this year is the same. Current Steeler Bud Dupree is a perfect example of this. It almost seemed impossible for him to fall to the Steelers, but as we all know, he landed right in the Steelers laps.
I decided to go back to the 2016 draft and highlight some players that both draft analysts and fans were high on that ended up falling farther than most expected.I dug up the mock draft’s of analysts Matt Miller (Bleacher Report), Dane Brugler (CBS), and Chad Reuter (NFL.com) to use as a comparison tool.
Here are 5 players from the 2016 NFL Draft that fell farther than most expected…
Andrew Billings (DT) – Baylor
| Miller | Brugler | Reuter | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 (JAX) | 25 (PIT) | 16 (DET) | 122 (CIN) |
I’m sure many remember Andrew Billings, he was a very popular name that was mocked to the Steelers quite often. He ended up taking a surprising tumble in the draft, going from almost a 1st round lock to a 4th round pick.
There are no concrete reasonings why Billings fell. There were some rumors of a knee injury, but nothing was ever confirmed. It could simply have been because teams didn’t value his skillset. Listed at 6’1 310 lb’s, teams may have viewed Billings as nothing more than a clogger in the middle of the lane, even though he tested well at the combine.
Unfortunately for Billings, he missed the whole 2016 season after suffering a torn meniscus. We’ll have to see in 2017 if Billings was a 4th round steal or if his fall was justified.
Myles Jack (LB) – UCLA
| Miller | Brugler | Reuter | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 (CLE) | 7 (SF) | 6 (BAL) | 36 (JAX) |
Myles Jack is easily the biggest name that fell. Though seen as a top 10 lock for the majority of the draft season, he unexpectedly fell to day two. Many had him mocked to Jacksonville in the 1st round and they ended up getting him in the 2nd.
A potential knee injury seems to be the consensus reason for his fall. Jack admitted to the public he might no microfracture down the road and there were murmurs of a degenerative knee condition, which clearly didn’t bode well with teams.
It’s still to be determined if Jack was a steal or not, for he only played about 22% of defensive snaps in 2016. Time will tell if he truly was one of the biggest steals of the draft, but Jack’s situations shine a light on how injury concerns can affect a player’s draft stock.
Jeremy Cash (S/LB) – Duke
| Miller | Brugler | Reuter | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 (JAX) | 85 (HOU) | 89 (PIT) | UDFA (CAR) |
Among the players on this list, Jeremy Cash was the biggest faller. Cash was praised for his physicality and run support ability but criticized for his coverage skills and athleticism. He was pegged as a box safety, but teams clearly didn’t share the same opinions of draft analysts.
Cash ended up going undrafted and signed by the Carolina Panthers. He was one of the most sought after free agents as well, receiving a $20,000 signing bonus, one of the highest among undrafted free agents. The Panthers didn’t view him as a safety either, they ended up listing him as a linebacker, potentially a better fit for him considering his weaknesses.
Cash may not have had the draft or career he anticipated, but he made the most of it and carved out a role as a key special teams player for the Panthers. His journey goes to show how much teams value athleticism and coverage skills when evaluating players.
Connor Cook (QB) – Michigan State
| Miller | Brugler | Reuter | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 (DEN) | 31 (DEN) | 32 (CLE) | 100 (OAK) |
In the 2017 draft, we’re seeing a lot of names rise up as fringe day 1 picks. With these guys being hyped it, it’s worth taking a look back at Connor Cook. Despite analysts pegging Cook as an early pick, he fell to the 4th round.
The two apparent reasons for Cook’s fall was his leadership skills and injury concerns. It was mentioned earlier in the article how influential health can be, and that goes for quarterbacks too. Along with that, people questioned his leadership skills and if he had the ability to command a locker room.
Cook’s story won’t apply to every quarterback, but it shows to look beyond players arm numbers when evaluating. Their ability to lead is almost equally as important.
Jayron Kearse (S) – Clemson
| Miller | Brugler | Reuter | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 (CIN) | 183 (TB) | 136 (DEN) | 244 (MIN) |
Although billed as the worst player among these five by analysts, Jayron Kearse at least managed to get drafted. Kearse’s stock saw a lot of fluctuation throughout the draft process; at one point he was thought to be a 1st round pick though. As the year continued, his stock dropped significantly.
While Kearse isn’t the sexiest name on this list, it still shows that a player that many thought would be a 4th-5th round selection can easily fall – in Kearse’s case, he fell to the 7th round. Kearse’s problem was that many didn’t think he played with the smarts or aggressiveness necessary to play safety. He did manage to get some playing time on defense in the 2016 season, but it’s still up in the air if he can carve out a role for himself in the NFL or if he’ll be another forgotten name.
Kearse is the perfect example of a player hyped early but whose flaws were exposed when examined closely.
