Analyzing 20 years of Heisman winners: How many were draft busts?

The Heisman Memorial Trophy is college football’s biggest prize. It is awarded annually to the most outstanding player in college football whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.

That being said, one would assume that the player who wins the Heisman would probably go on to have a great career at the professional level. However, more often than not, this hasn’t been the case.

The first Heisman Trophy was awarded in 1935, and, yeah, I’m not going back far. I decided to keep this exercise to a more modern era with players most of us can actually remember. So in the last twenty years, since 1997, how many Heisman winners went on to equally fantastic NFL careers?

1997: Charles Woodson (CB, Michigan)

Woodson was drafted by the Raiders, had a stint in Green Bay, then finished out his career that spanned 17 years back in Oakland. A lock for the Hall of Fame, complete with a laundry list full of accolades and statistics, Woodson definitely lived up to winning the Heisman.

Verdict: Exceptional

1998: Ricky Williams (RB, Texas)

Williams is a peculiar story because when he had his head on straight he was a pretty good NFL running back, even leading the league in rushing while garnering Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors in 2002. However, various stints out of the league for random personal reasons tarnished his career. Not quite a bust, but never lived up to being drafted 5th overall by the Saints in 1999.

Verdict: Average

1999: Ron Dayne (RB, Wisconsin)

Dayne was selected 11th overall by the Giants in 2000 and formed a nice running back duo with Tiki Barber, as the G-Men advanced the Super Bowl that season. Dayne was not brought back when his contract expired, and although he showed a few flashes for Denver in 2005, Dayne never came close to being a franchise ball carrier. He never eclipsed 1,000 yards and his career YPC average is a lousy 3.8.

Verdict: Bust

2000: Chris Weinke (QB, Florida State)

Weinke didn’t even play college ball until he was 26 after spending six years in minor league baseball. Although he won the Heisman, he wasn’t drafted until the fourth round and never accomplished anything significant in the NFL. Matter of fact, from 2001 to 2006, the Panthers lost all 17 games that he started.

Verdict: Bust

2001: Eric Crouch (QB, Nebraska)

Crouch was drafted to play receiver for the Rams but still had quarterback aspirations. However, after taking a hard hit and suffering a leg injury, Crouch left the team before playing a single game. He signed with the Chiefs and was allocated to NFL Europe. That’s pretty much where his NFL story ends.

Verdict: Bust

2002: Carson Palmer (QB, USC)

Palmer has been, overall, a successful starting quarterback. He was drafted by the Raiders in 2003 and is still a starter, currently for the Arizona Cardinals. With a list of accolades that includes Pro Bowls, an All-Pro appearance (2015), and the Comeback Player of the Year Award (2015), Palmer has been anything but a bust.

Verdict: Above Average

2003: Jason White (QB, Oklahoma)

Even though he had a strong college stint, White was not selected in the draft and gave up on a pro career, his weak knees being the reason.

Verdict: Bust

2004: Matt Leinart (QB, USC)

Leinart was able to meander around the league as mostly a backup from 2006 to 2012 for three different teams after being selected 10th overall by Arizona in the 2006 draft. At least he wasn’t out of the league in a year, and he even threw a couple touchdown passes.

Verdict: Bust

2005: Reggie Bush (RB, USC) *Vacated

Bush was selected 2nd overall in the draft by the Saints, and from 2006 to 2010 was one of the better all-purpose backs in the NFL for his rushing, receiving, and punt returning ability. He bounced around the league after that and is currently a free agent. While I wouldn’t consider Bush a bust by any means, I can’t say he ever lived up to his draft status either.

Verdict: Average

2006: Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State)

Despite a strong college career, Smith was taken in the 5th round of the 2007 draft by the Ravens, as he was considered too small to play quarterback at the NFL level. Smith hung around until 2010 as primarily a backup, but winning the Heisman never translated to success.

Verdict: Bust

2007: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)

On the surface, Tebow’s stats and win/loss record aren’t too bad for the games he started during his three full seasons in the league (2010-2012). He was given chances in New England and Philadelphia but hasn’t been on a roster for opening day since 2012 after a window of success in Denver. I have a tough time calling Tebow a complete bust.

Verdict: Average

2008: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)

Bradford was the first overall pick by the Rams in the 2010 draft. He signed the largest contract ever for a rookie. Given when he was drafted and how much he was paid, Sammy hasn’t lived up to winning the Heisman, but he hasn’t been awful either with 98 career touchdowns and a career passer rating of 84.5.

Verdict: Average

2009: Mark Ingram, Jr. (RB, Alabama)

Ingram was selected in the first round of the 2011 draft by the Saints. He is in the upper tier of backs in the NFL, earning a Pro Bowl birth in 2014 and a second contract with New Orleans. His statistics have been hindered by coach Sean Payton‘s obsessions with committee backfields and throwing the ball 69 times a game, but there’s no doubt Ingram has lived up to his Heisman.

Verdict: Above Average

2010: Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)

Newton came into the league as the first overall pick in 2011 and has lived up to his draft status and winning the Heisman. The Panthers have been playoff contenders and have appeared in a Super Bowl under Newton’s direction, with Cam sometimes supplying basically all of the offense through the air and ground. At only 27, there’s plenty more to be written in Newton’s story.

Verdict: Exceptional

2011: Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

RGIII was selected 2nd overall by the Redskins in the 2012 draft and burst onto the scene in a big way, leading the Skins to the playoffs and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. However, in the following years, injuries have kept Griffin III from replicating his early success. While the door is not closed on him as an NFL starter, it seems to be shutting rather quickly.

Verdict: Average

2012: Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)

Manziel has been a complete joke and is currently out of the league. Known more for his partying and off-field antics than playing football, he’s currently trying to turn his life around in hopes that he gets another shot.

Verdict: Moron

The Rest

The jury is still out on James Winston (2013), Marcus Mariota (2014), and Derrick Henry (2015), but thus far it appears the two quarterbacks are on the right path to being franchise guys, while Henry spent his first season splitting time.

Overall, there were seven busts, while only two went on to have, or are having, exceptional careers. Most of the pack was average, which is better than being terrible. It just goes to show the vast difference between football at the college and pro levels, and that some awards aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.


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