Pro Football Focus projects 11-win season for the Steelers
If opinions are like a certain body part, and everyone has one, then certainly predictions fall into the same category.
The same could be said for Pro Football Focus’ latest round of projections, which attempt to place each team’s finish in their conference. As is no surprise to anyone paying attention to pro football for the last few years, PFF picked the New England Patriots to finish first in the AFC, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers finishing second in the conference. That sounds like a fair, and reasonable prediction, until you realize PFF expects the Steelers to end the year with an 11-5 record: the same as their record in 2016. The blurb found on their official website explaining their rationale is as follows:
The Steelers made their way to the AFC Championship game but were unable to beat New England. Few teams had a quieter offseason in terms of player movement. All of their free agent additions will likely be backups, and their biggest loss (of outside linebacker Jarvis Jones) was immediately replaced in the first round of the draft in T.J. Watt. The only team that has two top-10 wide receivers in yards per route run over the last two years is Pittsburgh, with Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, who is returning from suspension. If there is reason to believe the Steelers can make one more Super Bowl run with Ben Rothelisberger at quarterback, it’s the return of Bryant.
While the return of Martavis Bryant is a reason to raise expectations for the Steelers, the staff at PFF didn’t raise anything. They do not expect Pittsburgh to improve on their previous record. In fact, they also believe the team’s biggest loss is Jarvis Jones! Even if that were true, and it’s not (it’s Lawrence Timmons), the addition of a major playmaking threat like Bryant should be a swing toward the positive.
Should we care the Steelers only added backups in free agency? That means they have more viable starters than at any other point in recent years. Three rookies started on their defense last season, and only one rookie appears to make any immediate impact (T.J. Watt). One starter is lost on defense, and the expectation is that Bryant will reclaim his previous starting spot. Add in the return of captain Cameron Heyward, as well as full seasons with Le’Veon Bell and Bud Dupree, and the future looks much brighter for the Steelers than the site would seem to think.
PFF’s top-seeded AFC team, the New England Patriots, were praised for acquiring Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead: the exact opposite of their acclaim for the Steelers offseason additions of Justin Hunter, Knile Davis, and Coty Sensabaugh. The Steelers stood still, holding onto their own Pro Bowl players Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. That’s a “win” in my book, while New England replaced LeGarrette Blount, with two career backups.
Sorry Pro Football Focus, but that’s a mark in the loss column. Blount ran for 18 touchdowns in 2016. Blount’s production will be hard to replace, yet it’s the Steelers who didn’t improve in free agency because they only added “backups”? (Insert thinking face emoji here!)
PFF also feels Brandin Cooks is a major upgrade to the Patriots offense: in 2016, Cooks averaged five receptions and 73 yards in a New Orleans offense which attempted 123 more passes than New England’s.
In 2015, Martavis Bryant’s last full season, he averaged five receptions and 70 yards per game; nearly identical to Cooks’ numbers in a more pass-friendly gameplan. The two were also near identical in yards per catch as well, but only one is considered a major “upgrade” for their team. The Patriots will also replace CB Logan Ryan with Stephon Gillmore, and DE Chris Long with Kony Ealy. How those moves do, or do not, pay off, will be something to examine following this season.
One in which I feel the Steelers will be hard-pressed to find five losses on their schedule!
