The Steelers 2017 Schedule in 4 Quarters – Part 2
Just as a quick recap, the Steelers may sit at 3-1 after the first quarter of the 2017 season. With a home win against the Vikings and wins on the road over the Bears and the Browns, the only blemish in my predictions so far is a road loss to the Ravens.
As a point of reference, I think this will put the Steelers in a potential tie for first place in the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. I expect the Bengals to be 3-1 after beating the Ravens, Texans, and Browns. Their one loss is to Green Bay on the road. The Ravens will also be 3-1, with wins against Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Steelers, and the road loss to the Bengals.
At this point, I still expect the Browns to be 0-4, with losses to the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals as well as the Colts. It’s not worth figuring out the tie-breakers this early in the season, so we’ll call it a three-way tie for first place as the second quarter of the season gets underway.
Second Quarter – Jaguars, @Chiefs, Bengals, @Lions
The second quarter sees an even split of road and home games for the Steelers. The two road games are potentially tough ones, as Pittsburgh travels to Kansas City (always a tough place to play) and Detroit. The Steelers play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bengals, who seem to play the Steelers better in Pittsburgh than they do in Cincinnati.
There are two ways to look at where the bye week falls in Week 9. First, it’s nice that the Steelers don’t have a really long stretch of games (8 on the front half, 8 on the back), but then again, they don’t have a short stretch either. This also gives the Steelers their first primetime game (Detroit) which is a Sunday Night game. They don’t really have any short weeks, or long weeks, just the one late game to finish off the first half of the season.
Week 5 – Jacksonville
The Jaguars are a mystery to me. As bad as they’ve been over the past decade, they always play the Steelers tough. The Jags actually lead the overall series 12-11. The upside is that the Steelers do have a 6-5 record against the Jags at home. These are usually tough, close games. Over the past four contests, no game was decided by more than seven points, and one went into overtime.
The Jaguars signed Calais Campbell to try and improve their pass rush, and they also signed A.J. Bouye to help shore up a secondary already stocked with second-year cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The battles between Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant against Ramsey/Bouye will be interesting to watch. At 6-2 Ramsey is one of the few corners with the height to really defend against Bryant.
This may also be a big test for the Steelers run defense since the Jaguars drafted Leonard Fournette. You can bet they will be leaning heavily on the former LSU star to help Blake Bortles settle in more comfortably.
I don’t think this game will be anywhere near a sure win, but I think the Steelers will eventually pull ahead. It won’t be a blowout or a high scoring game in all likelihood, but the Steelers should move to 4-1 on the season.
Steelers 24 – Jaguars 13
Week 6 – Kansas City
Kansas City is considered one of the toughest stadiums to play in. Still, the Steelers own an 11-7 lifetime record against the Chiefs in KC. The Steelers are 8-2 against the Chiefs in their last ten games overall and are 3-3 at Arrowhead during that span.
The last time they faced, the Steelers needed the magic of the Wizard of Boz to pull off an 18-16 upset in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. They probably won’t be able to rely on that kind of magic again.
The Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes II in this year’s draft, but if Mahomes is playing in this game, then the Chiefs season has probably gone wrong already. Alex Smith should still be the starter, and the same nibbling offense the Chiefs have used during the Andy Reid era should continue.
The Chiefs have had a solid defense, and their pass rush has been dominant when healthy. It will be interesting to see how Justin Houston fairs after a full offseason of rehab to his ACL injury. Even though he returned last season, he wasn’t 100-percent. The same is true of Derek Johnson, who should be back. In the secondary, Eric Berry and Marcus Peters will be back ball-hawking. The funny thing is, Antonio Brown seems to have their number, and once you put Martavis back in play on the other side, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball.
Think of this, if those six field goals by Boswell had been six touchdowns, the score would have been 42–16 in that postseason game. I don’t expect that kind of blowout this time, but I think the Steelers head home from Kansas City with a 5-1 record.
Steelers 35 – Chiefs 20
Week 7 – Cincinnati
Last year, the Steelers swept the Bengals, beating them 24-20 in Cincinnati and 24-16 at home. This game is going to be an interesting statement on the Bengals draft choices in my opinion. To be fair, the entire season will be.)
Joe Mixon, the running back the Bengals took in the second round, has been called “Le’Veon Bell like”. My question remains, who is blocking for this guy? The Bengals are praying developing offensive lineman can step in for the guys they lost (Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler). If Jake Fisher, Andre Smith and Cedric Ogbuehi (who was awful last year) can’t do the job, it won’t matter how good Mixon is.
The same is true for the Bengals first round pick, speedster John Ross. My view on Ross is that he’s a fragile player, and frankly, I’ll be surprised if he’s not banged up by the time the Bengals arrive in Pittsburgh. Even if he’s healthy, his speed becomes a non-issue if Andy Dalton is looking at the sky because nobody can block.
The Bengals/Steelers games have been ugly recently. I don’t know that I expect anything different this year. If things go south on the Bengals early in the year, and they lose some games they should win, I won’t be surprised if they quit on coach Marvin Lewis. I could be wrong, but guys like Pac-Man Jones and Burfict might just go off the reservation if they feel like there is nothing to play for.
I think the Steelers are the better team and should come out of this game 6-1. The bigger hope is they avoid any cheap hits that injure key players.
Steelers 31 – Bengals 20
Week 8 – Detroit
This game worries me. The Lions really focused on revamping their O-Line, and if that pays off, they have a couple of running backs in Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick who can move the rock. Their receiving corps includes Golden Tate, and a familiar face in Marvin Jones Jr. (formerly of the Bengals). New draft pick (third round) Kenny Golladay will likely compete for the third spot. I like Golladay a lot and had him mocked to the Steelers, but not as high as the Lions took him.
Matthew Stafford is a legitimate franchise quarterback, and frankly, he is the only one the Steelers will have faced up to this point of the season (sorry Flacco, Dalton, and Smith – you guys don’t cut it). This will be a real test for the Steelers secondary, especially if the Lions revamped line can hold off the Steelers rush.
The Steelers have only won five games in Detroit, but they have gone 2-2 in their last four appearances there. (One of which was at Ford Field, the others all at the Pontiac Silverdome.) For those of you paying close attention that means the Steelers have only played in Detroit once since 1998 (unless you count Super Bowl XL) and only once at Ford Field.
Ford Field is not Arrowhead Stadium. That being said it’s become one of the tougher places to play. A 8:30 prime-time game will only add to the fervor of the crowd. The good news for the Steelers is that the Lions will face their conference rival, Green Bay, the week after they play the Steelers, and it is also a primetime matchup.
The bad news is the Steelers are catching the Lions right after their bye week. Teams coming off their bye week are 83-75 over the last five years.
Guess who is the best?
The Detroit Lions. They are a perfect 5-0 after the bye over the last five years… like I said, this game worries me. Ben is usually good when he’s playing in primetime, and especially when he’s playing against another top-tier quarterback. So there is that on the plus side of this equation.
I’m leaning towards the Steelers pulling out a shoot out, but I’m like 50.5/49.5 on this one. It could go either way. I’ll go with the win so the Steelers go into their bye week at 7-1.
Steelers 43 – Lions 33
Conclusion
A 4-0 second quarter. It’s feasible, but I’m already nervous about that Lions game. I’m considering going back and hedging my bet.
If the Steelers can come out of the first half of the season 7-1, that would be a marvelous accomplishment. They would be set up to potentially navigate the rough waters that are coming their way in the second half of the season with four straight prime time games (Why NFL? Why? Don’t you know I have to get up at 4 a.m. to go to work!?!).
At this point so much can change. All of these predictions are predicated on the Steelers staying healthy, which is no sure thing. Still, I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that the Steelers could be 7-1 at this point in the season, or maybe 6-2 if my concerns about the Lions game bear fruit.
Next: The Third Quarter
