Photo: steelers.com
People love to float around statistics, especially ones that support their arguments. For example, a very popular statistic that has been floating around is Mike Tomlin’s poor record versus losing teams. This made me think: What is Tomlin’s record in the game following the Steelers bye week?
I compiled a table (below) that shows promising results, giving me a slight confidence boost as we await our week 9 match-up versus the Baltimore Ravens.
| Year | Opponent | Win/Loss | Score | Steelers record prior | Opponent record prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Seahawks | L | 30-39 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| 2014 | Saints | L | 32-35 | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| 2013 | Jets | W | 19-06 | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| 2012 | Eagles | W | 16-14 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| 2011 | Chiefs | W | 13-09 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| 2010 | Browns | W | 28-10 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| 2009 | Broncos | W | 28-10 | 5-2 | 6-1 |
| 2008 | Bengals | W | 38-10 | 4-1 | 0-6 |
| 2007 | Broncos | L | 28-31 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Here are some of the results from the table:
The overall results from this study are promising. A 6-3 overall record coming off the bye shows this is a game Tomlin tends to win.
Tomlin is 2-0 against AFC North teams coming off the bye, which is very significant. Division games tend to be the ones with the most upsets. The Bengals and Browns teams they beat may not have been very good, but this Ravens team isn’t very good themselves. Division games should never be taken lightly, and Tomlin has shown that he takes these games seriously when coming off the bye.
This stat unfortunately aligns with the trap game statistic. Ideally though the Steelers should be awake after suffering a two game losing streak, and shouldn’t fall into the clutches of the trap game, especially considering the game is versus their division rival.
The only trend from the table that worries me is that the Steelers have lost coming off the bye the past 2 years. They not only lost, but these losses came against teams whose records were .500 or less. This occurrence slightly shakes my confidence.
An interesting observation is that the Steelers have not lost to a team with a record greater than .500 in any games following the bye week. Just as the Steelers are known for giving up trap games, they’re also known for showing up in big games.
It’s also worth noting how prominent defense was in these wins. It’s no secret that defense wins championships, but it’s surprising that the games that ended up being shootouts results in a loss for the Steelers. The highest score allowed among the wins is 14.
In each of the losses their opponents scored 30+ points.
Data isn’t the tell-all for determining if a team will win a game, but it provides an interesting perspective to view a match-up from. Like Tomlin’s record with trap games though, the data always holds a certain extent of truth.
