It’s always good to be coming off a bye.

Oh, we didn’t have a bye you say? Well, technically that’s true, but considering the Steelers will not have had to actually play a game for 10 days, when they face the Giants this Sunday, it’s almost like a bye.

Admittedly, they needed that time after playing 2 games in 4 days. Still it’s nice to have that extra time to prepare, and to heal up as much as we can.

This contest actually stacks up much more evenly than I would have thought. The Giants and the Steelers are very similar in some ways. Just look at the stats:

	Giants	Steelers
Points per Game	21	24.2
Yards per Game	335.9	364.8
Points allowed	19.4	20.2
Yards allowed	353.8	358.7
Takeaways	14	14
Giveaways	19	10

Those are remarkably similar (other than the giveaways, where we have a considerable edge).

The Giants defense has been solid this year, but statistically, they are only slightly ahead of where the Steelers D is.  We’ve played better offensively, and we’ve played much better offensively at home than we have on the road.

And guess what? This game is at Heinz – so advantage Steelers!

So with that, let’s get to it!

Odell Beckham, Jr. vs Steelers Secondary

I love the hutzpah of Artie Davis saying he wants Odell. I think that kind of confidence is a necessity for any CB in this league. But let’s be honest – he’s going to need help. The nice thing is we know that Odell can be rattled. He can get put off his game, and maybe a nice introduction from one Michael Mitchell might help to shake him up just a bit?

But it’s not just Beckham. We have to watch all their receivers, just look at this single stat to know that’s a fact: Beckham has 14 third down catches, Cruz has 9 third down catches, and Sterling Shepard has 14.

That’s distribution.

And it means it’s not just Beckham we have to worry about.

This matchup is going to be a challenge.

Antonio Brown vs. Giants Secondary

I almost said Janoris Jenkins vs. Antonio Brown, but you know, I just don’t know if they will depend on one guy to cover Antonio Brown. It didn’t work out so well for the Colts, and the only way teams have been successful has been to dedicate multiple guys to covering AB.

Let’s be honest – if they line up Jenkins on AB and tell him to cover him, I would expect AB to have a big game ,and for Jenkins to have another Twitter meltdown like he did last week when Terrelle Pryor had 131 yards on 6 catches against him.

That being said, I don’t expect that to happen. I expect Antonio to face 2, and maybe 3 guys on most downs, and definitely on obvious passing situations.

Landon Collins has made his presence known already this season, and Ben needs to be aware of where he is.

That means that the area I think is weakest on this team right now needs to step up. Other guys are going to have to get open, and get open consistently. Ladarius Green will help a lot here I think, but Eli Rogers, Cobi Hamilton and Sammie Coates all need to be more impactful than they have been.

Turnover Battle

The Giants D has been opportunistic, and they have corners who can be ball hawks. We need to protect the ball on our side, and we need to take it away from them.

Yes, the turnover battle is always an issue, and something to watch.

What I am going to say is that it doesn’t matter if we win the overall turnover battle. We just can’t lose the Points off of Turnovers Battle. That is the one we really need to either tie or come out ahead on.

Pressure on Eli is going to be key to making him jittery in the pocket, and if he gets jittery, he is capable of turning the ball over. Repeatedly.

On the other hand, without pressure, he also is capable of picking a defense apart.

The Battle in the Trenches

For me, this is the biggest key to this game. Which line dominates? Is it our O-line, allowing Le’Veon to run all over? Is it our D-line, continuing the sack attack that we’ve had the past two weeks.

Or is it the Giants D or O line that dominates. If it is, then we will have a hard time winning this game.

Our O-line needs to keep Ben clean the way they have been, and they will have a much more difficult time this week. Jason Pierre-Paul will be a handful for whomever faces him. If they leave him on a tight end he’s going to abuse whomever it is. He has 7 sacks so far this year, and Olivier Vernon has 5.5, so it’s not a one-man show.

Which unit establishes their dominance, and enforces their will on the other is going to determine who wins this matchup.

Ben vs. Eli

I know, I know – Ben doesn’t actually play against Eli. It doesn’t matter.

Ben loves to play against guys who were in the same draft class, and Eli and Phillip Rivers were both more “highly touted” than he was. He relishes the opportunities to show teams that drafted quarterbacks before him that they made a mistake.

Add that to the fact that Ben’s absolutely been insane, statistically speaking, at Heinz field. I expect Ben to do everything he can to put up numbers that are impressive. Still, I don’t think he’ll do it to the detriment of the team. The win will still be more important to him than the individual stats.

But he will have an edge this weekend.

Conclusion

I didn’t talk about Special Teams. There is a reason for that. All I want from this unit is for me to not think about them. I really don’t want to have to consider this unit. I want them to be transparent. If they are, that’s great. It would be fantastic if they did something amazing – but at this point just don’t do anything that makes me go “WTF!?!?!”

Beyond that, I like the Steelers in this game. Not in a blow out, and not in a runaway. It could go either way, but I think being at home will be what decides it in our favor. I think Bud Dupree in his third game back might start to flash a little more, and if Bud starts to become a presence, that will mean that the Giants can’t double up on Tuitt as much, or Javon or Ricardo. It will mean that James Harrison can get some looks, and Chickillo might get free. It makes the front 5 a lot more dangerous.

Add in a few well timed blitzes from Timmons and Shazier and we should be able to rattle Eli and throw him off his game. He can’t hit Beckham from his backside.

After all is said and done, I think we stack our third win: Steelers 38, Giants 30.

Until next time Nation!