Pittsburgh has several paths to make the playoffs

Nation, there are two weeks left in the 2016 NFL season, and the playoffs are looming; as is our Christmas Day battle with the Purple turds from Baltimore. (Every time I see that Miralax commercial I think “This is how a Raven is born!” – if you’ve never seen it google “Purple poop”.)

Ok, sorry, I got side-tracked.

The point is, I thought it might be a good idea to really take a look at what are playoff options look like. The simple thing is, we know that if we beat the Ravens Sunday, nothing else matters.

We win the North – we get a home playoff game.

But there are other paths to the playoffs, and in fact, there is a path that even gets us to the number 2 seed. In fact, the only way we are getting into the playoffs at all is either as the 2 or 3 or 4 seed. We can’t get in as a wildcard.

Steelers Get 2 Seed

Let’s start with the whole “cup is half full” scenario. We end up as the number 2 seed. That would give us a first round bye, and a guaranteed home playoff game, and if the Patriots were to lose in that divisional round, home field for the AFC Championship game. (Hey – I can dream, I did say cup half full!)

What the Steelers need to do

Win out.

There is no way we can get the 2 seed without beating both Baltimore and Cleveland.

Is this possible?

Sure, I actually think it’s probable, although if Stephon Tuitt is out for Baltimore, that will make it more difficult. (We should have some idea about that after Coach Tomlin’s press conference).

Win out and we end the season/

What else needs to happen

The sad truth is in order to get the number 2 seed, we do need a little help from the Broncos, the Colts and maybe the Chargers.

Here is what needs to happen – Kansas City needs to lose one game, either against the Broncos (which is in KC) or the Chargers (which is in San Diego).

But that’s not all. We also need the Raiders to lose out. That means they would have to lose this weekend to the Colts (in Oakland) and lose to the Broncos (in Denver).

It’s not impossible.

The Colts absolutely destroyed the Vikings last weekend, in Minnesota, so it’s not inconceivable that they could beat the Raiders. The Colts, to have any chance of making the playoffs, have to win out. So this will be a critical game for them, and the Raiders are already in, no matter what happens.

Denver also needs to win out to assure themselves a spot in the postseason. They can get in and lose to KC this weekend, but then they need tons of help.

The bottom line is that the AFC West teams are all going to be cannibalizing each other over the next couple weeks, and the team that needs to win the most is Denver, while the Raiders are in no matter what. I think KC is pretty much in, although not guaranteed.

If the right things happen they can lose out, and still make it as a wild card.

Prediction

The truth is that I do think the Steelers are going to win out. I’ve been saying that since the loss to the Cowboys. I said in my GBU article after that game that I thought they’d go 11-5. So let’s start with us beating the Ravens this Sunday, and beating the Browns the following Sunday. We will do our part.

I think the Colts will beat the Raiders this weekend. However, I think the Chiefs will probably beat the Broncos. That means it will come down to the Raiders/Broncos and Chiefs/Chargers games. I’d like to think the Broncos, who would be playing for their playoff lives at that point, might beat the Raiders in Denver. And they might. I actually think the Chargers will beat the Chiefs in that last game, and that means this Denver/Oakland game is the hinge on which the number two seed swings.

I’m just not sure all these ducks are gonna line up. But they could – so let’s say 20% chance.

Steelers Get 3 Seed

This is the most likely scenario, without doubt. The Steelers could get the 3 seed, even if they lose one of their last two games. So, we have to break this down into two scenarios: 1 – the Steelers win out, and 2a – they beat the Ravens, but lose to the Browns and 2b – they lose to the Ravens but beat the Browns.

Scenario 1: The Steelers win out

In this scenario, nobody else needs to do a thing. If we win out, we are guaranteed the 3 seed. No if’s and or buts. Win and in.

Scenario 2a: Steelers beat the Ravens, then lose to the Browns

If this happens, we will win the North (if we beat the Ravens, the North is ours). However, if we then drop that last game to the Browns, we need some help.

The Bengals or the Titans would need to beat the Texans. If the Texans win out, and we lose to the Browns, we would find ourselves as the 4th seed.

Scenario 2b: Steelers lose to Ravens, then beat the Browns

I don’t even want to think about this, and the truth is that if we lose the Ravens, we are probably going to be on the outside looking in.

Why?

Because in order to win the North (which is our only way into the postseason) we would need the Bengals to beat the Ravens the following week. If that happens, we end up winning the North, and the Ravens will have collapsed in unprecedented fashion.

That’s probably not going to happen.

I mean really, who thinks the Bengals will want to win that game, and put us into the postseason? The Bengals might play all backups (no, they won’t) and just lay down (that they might do).

I can’t imagine a scenario where they beat the Ravens, because it would mean putting the Steelers into the playoffs.

Still, it’s a possibility; and we would still need the Texans to lose one of their last two, regardless.

Prediction

I think this is probably where we end up, and I’m good with that.

I believe we will win out (not to keep blowing that horn) so that puts us in as the third seed.

There is the possibility of being number 2, so let’s say there is a 79% chance that we are the number 2 seed. (This is based on my tremendous skills at statistics – in other words, I’m guessing).

Steelers Get 4 Seed

This works out pretty simply – we are number 4 if either scenario 2a or 2b happens, and the Texans win out. In that case, we slide in as the number 4 seed, and still have a playoff game at home.

This isn’t going to happen. First, I don’t think the Texans can win out. I think they very well could lose out. If that happens, the worst we will be is 3. If they lose one game, the worst we will be is 3.

Prediction

1% chance. Why? Because that adds up to 100%.

Conclusion

I think that we are looking at either the 2 or 3 seed.

3 most likely.

Of course, the Steelers have to do their part, and they have to win Sunday and give the Nation the only thing it wants for Christmas. I think that will happen. We are at home, we have played with greater passion and intensity over the past 5 weeks than I think we have for most of the season, and the defense is playing lights out.

The Steelers will win Sunday, and we can all go to sleep with visions of Lombardi’s dancing in our heads.

Until next time Nation!


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