AFC seeding scenarios going into Week 16
The NFL has seen some crazy weekends and it’s all shaping up to a wild finish of the regular season. Here are the AFC seedings going into Week 16 and what each team has to do in their last two games to either make the playoffs, secure byes or get home field advantage.
#1 New England Patriots (11-3)
After a disappointing loss to the Miami Dolphins, a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers put them right in the driver’s seat to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Games left: HOME vs. Bills and HOME vs. Jets
WIN OUT: Win out, and the Patriots secure the #1 seed regardless of what happens in other games.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: If the Patriots lose just one game, the seeding is wide open. With one loss, they could go anywhere from the #1 seed to the #3 seed. They will be a game behind Pittsburgh (if they win out) and they would lose the tiebreaker to Jacksonville (if they win out). Of course they can retain the #1 seed if Pittsburgh and Jacksonville lose, but for now, let’s assume both teams win out.
LOSE OUT: Basically the same scenario as before, they just need a lot more help to get that #2 or #1 seed back. They can’t fall any further than #3 and will have at least one game in Foxborough.
#2 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
Pittsburgh obviously had a heartbreaking loss and currently lost their claim to the #1 seed. Even after a controversial ending, there is still hope for the Steelers team.
Games left: AWAY vs. Texans and HOME vs. Browns
WIN OUT: If the Steelers win out, they will fall no further than the #2 seed. They hold a one-game lead against the Jaguars and will retain a first-round bye if they win out. If they win out and get help from New England, the Steelers can retake the #1 seed and stay cozy at home throughout the playoffs. Steelers Nation, we are now Bills and the Jets fans for the next two weeks.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: This is almost a worst-case scenario for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers lose just one game, they will lose the tiebreaker to Jacksonville (assuming they win out) and fall even further to the #3 seed, having to play in the wildcard round. Pittsburgh would need a lot of help from New England and Jacksonville in the coming weeks to keep a first-round bye and not fall into the wildcard round.
LOSE OUT: If Pittsburgh loses their last two games, the best they can do is the #2 seed. The Steelers will be eliminated from their own turf throughout since they would lose the head-to-head against New England. Pittsburgh would need two losses by Jacksonville to retain the #2 seed. The good news is that Pit. will go no further than the #3 seed, regardless of what happens.
#3 Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Jacksonville has come out strong to close the season thus far, and they have secured a spot in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.
Games left: AWAY vs. 49ers and AWAY vs. Titans
WIN OUT: The Jaguars will clinch the division with just one win and therefore have at least one game at home in the postseason. If the Jags win both games, at worst, they will be the #3 seed. Jacksonville needs help to go higher in the standings from both Pittsburgh and New England. They will need at least one loss by both teams to go higher in the standings. The good news for Jacksonville is that they have the tiebreaker on both teams, they are just one game behind.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: All is officially not lost in getting a first-round bye if the Jags lose one, but they would need Pit. and NE to lose their last two games. Their hopes of a first-round bye will all but go away if they lose just one game.
LOSE OUT: Best case scenario if Jacksonville losses their last two games, the #3 seed. Worst case, the #3 seed. They need to play to win or they will be in the wildcard round.
#4 Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
Kansas City squared off against the Chargers in basically a win-or-go-home game for the AFC West this past weekend and got the victory. Their chances of securing the division just grew exponentially and will sit comfortably in the #4 spot for now.
Games left: HOME vs. Dolphins and AWAY vs. Broncos
WIN OUT: The Chiefs will secure the AFC West and can almost go no further. They would host one home game to the #6 seed and go from there. The only scenario where the Chiefs get the #3 seed is if the Jaguars lose out and the Titans win out, the Chiefs have the tiebreaker over the Titans and would get the #3 seed.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: The Chiefs will still secure the division with just one win in either game, for they hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers. Win the first game and the second becomes meaningless (for the Chiefs).
LOSE OUT: Losing out will put the Chiefs at risk for not only losing the division but losing a playoff berth. If the Chiefs lose out and the Chargers win out, the Chiefs could be eliminated from the playoffs. They lose all tiebreakers to opposing teams in the wildcard, and their best shot is winning the division. They can still lose both games and win the division, but the Chargers would have to drop at least one game.
#5 Tennessee Titans (8-6)
The Tennessee Titans put themselves in a real bind this past weekend by losing to the 49ers. They are still in a position to make the playoffs, they will just need more help. The bad news, they have easily the toughest schedule of the remaining AFC teams in playoff contention.
Games left: HOME vs. Rams and HOME vs. Jaguars
WIN OUT: The Titans will still need more help to make it into the playoffs if they win out. They are on the inside at the moment but will lose tiebreakers by the end of the season. The Titans will need at least one loss by either the Bills or Ravens to secure a playoff spot. To win the division, they need to win out and Jacksonville to lose out.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: There are a lot of teams that factor into this equation, but the moral of the story is that in order for the Titans to get a wildcard spot, they will need either the Bills or Ravens to lose out or combinations of the two.
LOSE OUT: The Titans will need both the Ravens and Bills to lose a combination of games. They will need either team to lose out AND the other team to lose at least one game.
#6 Buffalo Bills (8-6)
The Buffalo Bills kept their playoff hopes alive by winning the last two games against Indianapolis and Miami.
Games left: AWAY vs. Patriots and AWAY vs. Dolphins
WIN OUT: The Bills will put themselves in great position to get into the playoffs by winning out, but they cannot do it alone, they will need help. They would just need either the Titans or Ravens to lose just one game, and they would be in.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: The scenarios get real crazy here because a lot could happen in many different ways for the Bills to still make the playoffs. Overall, the Bills should be rooting against the Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, and Chargers in the closing weeks.
LOSE OUT: Bottom line, they would need a lot of teams to lose with a lot of different combinations.
In the hunt
Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
The Ravens officially fell out of a playoff spot this past week despite winning, but they still hold the keys to their own destiny in the coming weeks.
Games left: HOME vs. Colts and HOME vs. Bengals
WIN OUT: Win out and the Ravens are in the playoffs, regardless of what happens in other games. Their seeding depends on what happens in other games, but they can only get the #5 or #6 seed regardless due to the Steelers clinching the division.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: Believe it or not, the Ravens are still in a good position of making the playoffs even with losing one game. They would just need the Bills to lose to the Dolphins or have Tennessee lose both games. Even with Tennessee (possibly) winning out as well as the Chargers, they would still get into the playoffs pending the Bills lose to the Dolphins.
LOSE OUT: Even with the Bills and Titans losing out, the Ravens would lose tiebreakers and remain out of the playoffs.
Los Angelos Chargers (7-7)
The Chargers basically have one hope in making the playoffs: having the Chiefs lose out.
Games left: AWAY vs. Jets and HOME vs. Raiders
WIN OUT: Win out and the Chiefs winning out gives the Chargers the division. If the Chiefs win one game, the Chargers would need the Titans, Bills, and Ravens to all lose out, as well as one loss by the Dolphins (which would have to be from the Chiefs since the Dolphins and Bills play each other).
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: Eliminated
LOSE OUT: Eliminated
Oakland Raiders (6-8)
The Raiders are technically still alive, but only mathematically.
Games left: AWAY vs. Eagles and AWAY vs. Chargers
WIN OUT: Here’s what needs to happen. Bills, Titans, and Chiefs need to lose out and Miami needs to win out. The Ravens need to win at least one game, and the Raiders squeak into the 6th seed.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: Eliminated
LOSE OUT: Eliminated
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Miami all but eliminated themselves from the playoffs by losing this past weekend. Like the Raiders, they are still technically alive, but only mathematically.
Games left: AWAY vs. Chiefs and HOME vs. Bills
WIN OUT: Here’s what needs to happen. Week 16 – Bills lose, Titans lose, and Chiefs lose (obviously). Week 17 – Bills lose (obviously), Titans lose, and the Raiders need to drop one game. That leaves the Ravens with the #5 seed and the Dolphins with the #6 seed.
WIN ONE, LOSE ONE: Eliminated
LOSE OUT: Eliminated
