Shotgun formation an unfair scapegoat for Steelers recent lack of offense
A recent discussion on the Steel City Underground Podcast unsurfaced some facts about a narrative that’s been swirling around Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers for a few seasons: overuse of the shotgun formation.
Part of the perceived problem with the Steelers operating “out of the gun” has been their lack of a run game in recent years. Pittsburgh finished dead last in the league in rushing yards in 2020, with near-bottom performances in 2018 (31) and 2019 (29th) as well.
There’s a belief that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t like to go under center, that is, take direct snaps and prefers to operate a few yards back for a longer snap – that perception has coincided with the Steelers lack of rushing and unfairly labeled their shotgun sets as ineffective.
The latter statement is a bit deeper than what’s on the surface.
In 2020, the Steelers used the shotgun formation 83% of the time. According to the snap stats sourced from SharpFootballStats.com, the NFL average is 65%, with the Steelers among the top teams but far from those who used shotgun the most. (The NFL average was up 2% year-to-year as well.)
Opponents of heavy shotgun usage may be surprised to find out that the NFL’s top running team, the Baltimore Ravens, almost exclusively use it, running their plays out of shotgun a staggering 97% of the time. (And 96% in 2019!)
The Arizona Cardinals ranked next with 92%, followed by the Houston Texans (82%) and the Kansas City Chiefs (83%), who tied with the Steelers own 83%. (The Steelers, Cardinals, and Chiefs all saw a 5% increase year-to-year from 2019 to 2020 too.)
A few other teams used the “gun” more than 70% of the time including the Panthers, Bears, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, and Seahawks.
Among those teams which operate primarily under center, the Vikings led the league with 70% of their plays, while the 49ers (57%), Rams (56%), Titans (55%), Raiders (51%) and Patriots (50%) were the others with a half split or better.
The under center average in the league last season was 37%, a number we here at SCU feel the Steelers could get closer to in 2021.
As you can see, playing primarily out of shotgun doesn’t dictate success or failure. Instead, part of the recent run game woes coincided with personnel changes from 2017 to 2018 through 2020, including the departures of RB Le’Veon Bell and offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
The switch from Haley to former OC Randy Fichtner appears to have done the most damage over the last three seasons. The Steelers had previously held at least a middle-of-the-pack rushing attack, ranking 20th in 2017, 14th in 2016, and 16th in both 2015 and 2014.
With a heavier focus on passes, specifically short passes, Fichtner went away from Haley’s mix of under center snaps versus shotgun snaps as well. In 2017, Haley’s last season, the Steelers had a mix of 29% of plays from center. In 2016, the last season Sharp Stats provides, that figure was 34% under center.
As referenced earlier, playing from shotgun formation doesn’t exclusively destroy an offense, but it can aide in making it too predictable.
Not only was Fichtner’s offense pass-heavy and shotgun-heavy, but the formation and down/distance tipped what the Steelers were running. As the Steelers operated less and less under center, they also attempted fewer running plays. The result, as you may have guessed, was a dip in offensive production.
While the above paints a larger overall picture of Pittsburgh’s problems, any team with film and a half-competent analytics department could figure out what Fichtner was calling on any given down – forget the distance. (Though in the below stats, you can just assume there weren’t large gains on first and second down, forcing the Steelers into 3rd-and-long passing situations.)
If you were a defensive coordinator playing against the Steelers, you didn’t have to worry about them running the ball from shotgun (or almost at all) outside of first down: save for the dozen-and-a-half times Pittsburgh went for it on 4th down (typically 4th-and-1).
Worse, you already knew if they were running it based on whether or not Big Ben was under center or in shotgun.
There was never a time where the Steelers were less than 70% of a chance of passing the ball out of shotgun. Worse, on 2nd down that figure was a 3/4 chance with almost no doubt they were passing the ball out of shotgun on third down.
Therefore, we expect to see the Ben Roethlisberger under center more often in 2021, returning to his successful roots when Todd Haley called the plays, a 70% share of shotgun plays isn’t out of the question either.
What’s more likely to influence the offense this season is a new coordinator and running back. New OC Matt Canada, with a fresh mind for plays and play calling, can’t (and I doubt will) fall into the same predictable trap as Fichtner did in 2020.
Another added chess piece to the Steelers run game is first round pick Najee Harris. Harris will give Pittsburgh the necessary diversity in both the run and pass games. As a three-down player who can double as a receiver, the Steelers offense now becomes less predictable too.
Just don’t be surprised when Roethlisberger is still in shotgun a good portion of the time, as the passing trends in the NFL have skewed this (as well as the shorter distance “pistol” seen in RPO schemes) to a preferred method of attack. It’s also a QB-friendly scheme which still keeps Big Ben seeing the entire field quickly, to get rid of the ball quickly: something that could still be a priority this season depending on how the offensive line develops.
