Le’Veon Bell is worth less than he thinks

I don’t want to do this. Not again. I’m so tired of anything with the words “Le’Veon” or “Bell” in them. However, clearly, Le’Veon Bell isn’t about to take my feelings into consideration. What can be done, and what can’t be done and what could be done are all things that seem beyond the understanding of many people in the media, and also by many former players. So, with the amount of misinterpretation, miscommunication and general ignorance about this situation I thought it was time to sit down and try and clear things up.

Maybe after this, I’ll never have to write another article or do another podcast about Le’Veon Bell.

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What is the Franchise Tag?

The “Franchise Tag” is a designation that can be assigned to a player scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent. There are two varieties of the tag:

Exclusive – The player must be offered a one-year contract valued at no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player’s position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120 percent of the player’s previous salary (whichever is greater). In a second consecutive tag year, the value of the contract is 120 percent of the previous salary. If a team were to tag a player for a third year, it would be at 144 percent of the previous salary. In an exclusive tag – the player cannot negotiate with any other team.

Non-exclusive – Essentially the same as the exclusive tag; however, the player is entitled to negotiate with other teams, and if he signs an offer with one of those teams his original team has the right to match the offer. If they choose not to, the team will receive two first-round draft picks as compensation.

Prior to the Steelers tagging Le’Veon Bell for the 2018 season I was a big proponent of using the “non-exclusive” tag on him. Had he found an offer he wanted, the Steelers would have been able to match or get two first-round draft picks. Allowing Bell to be a “non-exclusive” tagged player would have, in reality, been no different because no-one was going to offer up two first round picks for Bell.

The collective bargaining agreement dictates that a player tagged can be negotiated with up to a specific date in the league year (sometime in July) at which point negotiations are banned and the player can either play under the tag or choose to sit out.

This is the situation the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell currently are in. The Steelers cannot negotiate a long-term contract at this point.

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What did the Steelers offer?

While exact details are not public, the numbers that are most commonly rolled out are these: $70 million over 5 years (average of $14 million per year) with $10 million guaranteed. Bell had the chance to earn $45 million over the first 3 years of the contract had he signed. The sticking point is “guaranteed money”. The Steelers do not guarantee contracts the way that some teams do as a general rule. It’s a business decision and one they stick to.

However, for players who sign large front-ended contracts, like the one with Bell, there are very few situations where the player did not actually earn the money in that contract. The Steelers have a reputation and history of taking care of their players.

In contrast, the contract Todd Gurley signed this past season was valued $60 million over 4 years ($15 million average) with $22 million fully guaranteed and $45 million locked in by 2020. That’s an important factor “locked in” by 2020. Had Bell signed his contract and played until 2020 (3 years) he would have been guaranteed $45 million (because he played those three years). Yes, Gurley has more fully guaranteed money (22 to 10) but the overall value is very similar.

So, can we please stop with the narrative that the Steelers somehow disrespected Bell and didn’t want to pay him? That is a blatant misrepresentation of the truth. The fact that Bell didn’t think the contract was good enough for him doesn’t mean that they didn’t try and pay him, or that they disrespected him. They simply had different opinions on what that value was.

My opinion is that when Bell hits free agency in 2019 he’ll be wishing he had signed that contract. In an article by Jenny Vrentas published today on SI.com, she notes that some NFL executives thought the top end of what Bell might get was four years for $56 million ($14 million per year). They did note that a team flush with cap space and need might pay more. Many teams overpay for players all the time. The Steelers don’t.

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Can they still negotiate?

Depends on how you look at it. The Steelers could offer Bell a one-year deal worth more than the tag value, but how does that actually change anything? They’d still be asking Bell to work on a single year deal, with no guaranteed future earnings or protection. How is that any different than the tag, other than you get a few more million. And at this point, that is still going to be a pro-rated contract, and for every game Bell misses, the overall value he can expect to get is going to lessen.

As to a long-term deal with guaranteed money and all that – let me be really clear here:

THEY CANNOT

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What happens if the Steelers rescind the tag?

If the Steelers were to release Bell he walks away as a free agent. The Steelers would be eligible for compensatory picks depending on the formula. However, it’s important to remember they signed Morgan Burnett and Jon Bostic this season and per an article by Jessica Harrington on USA News “Bell’s departure would put their net free agency gains and losses at zero, given that they signed safety Morgan Burnett and linebacker Jon Bostic and lost tackle, Chris Hubbard. Per a source with extensive knowledge of the compensatory draft pick formula, the next gains and losses of zero would keep the Steelers from getting any compensatory draft picks.”

While I’m not sure the equation of Bell + Hubbard (losses) = Bostic + Morgan (Gains) who knows what crazy formula the NFL uses.

If they rescind the tag, Bell walks away a free agent, and the Steelers get nothing.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

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Can they trade Bell, and what is he worth?

Well, they certainly can try. There are big stumbling blocks in getting that done though. First and foremost is that in order to actually finalize a deal, Bell has to sign the franchise tender. If he doesn’t, he isn’t really a Steeler, and cannot be traded. However, let’s say that a team somehow convinced Bell that “after this year we’ll take care of you” and he agreed, then he could be traded.

Notice how I said, “after this year”? Any team that trades for Bell will be in the EXACT same position the Steelers are in right now. They cannot offer him more than a one-year contract (pro-rated).

From the Steelers point of view, if Bell holds out all year, or eventually comes in and signs he’ll be gone next year. At that point, the Steelers would most likely get a third-round compensatory pick. Any team wanting to trade needs to beat that as a starting point.

I said it on the last podcast and I believe it still. The Steelers say they need to be “blown away” by an offer, and nobody is going to do that. If you are the General Manager of another team, are you going to offer that much for a player who is going to come in rusty, need to learn a new offensive playbook, and who you only have a CHANCE of signing next year?

Slim chance at best.

Deebo’s Advice

James Harrison isn’t known for his wisdom. In his new incarnation as a mouthpiece on whatever show will have him, he also isn’t going to do anything but say things designed to gain notoriety and attention.

It’s no surprise that Mr. Harrison offered up the sage advice that Bell sign at the last possible minute, practice, and then fake injuries for every game.

You know that is certainly going to engender him to the guys who are going to have to sign those big checks when he’s a free agent. It should be clear to everyone that owners and general managers tend to frown upon players who don’t seem to be committed to the team and to winning.

From the same standpoint, the Steelers can also refuse to pay Bell for two weeks after he signs (because of the exemption they filed for) if they want to.

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Conclusion

So where does that leave things?

Exactly where you think it does. Le’Veon Bell either plays for the Steelers this year, or he doesn’t play. As each week goes by where Bell decides not to report, the likelihood is that he doesn’t play. This isn’t going to be an issue that goes away anytime soon, despite how badly I want it to.

It’s going to get uglier as the season goes on, and honestly, I don’t see a way that allows Bell to be embraced by the team if he chooses to return in week 11. At that point, barring injury or another issue, I’m not even sure I’d want him in the lineup. Let him sit on the bench inactive for the last five games and see how having absolutely nothing on his resume for 2018 helps him when it’s time to sit down with other teams at the bargaining table.


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