Projecting Steelers stats through 16 games
Can four games give us an idea of the season stats for players like Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown?
Being that the Steelers are four games in, it seems like a good time to project the stats of select players through the season.
In order to give this idea some credit, I compiled stat projections for Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon from the 2016 season. In these tables below I took their stats from the first four games of the 2016 season, projected those numbers across a full season, then compared that total to their actual stats.
The method was adjusted for each player as well. For example, because Roethlisberger only played in 14 games in 2016, so it would be inaccurate to project his stats across a 16 game season. Therefore each 2016 projection was adjusted to reflect the number of games each player started in.
For the 2017 projections, the numbers are based on each player playing in all 16 games. While it’s certainly possible that somebody gets hurt or the starters sit in week 17, those factors cannot be fairly predicted.
Still with me? Good! Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Looking back at 2016
Ben Roethlisberger
| 2016 – 4 games | 2016 projection | 2016 actual | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards | 1,116 | 3,906 | 3,819 | (87) |
| Completions | 92 | 322 | 328 | (6) |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 39 | 29 | (10) |
| Passer rating avg | 101.45 | 101.45 | 95.4 | (6.05) |
The numbers that stand out here are yards and completions. The projection for yards was only 87 yards off, meaning thats just one deep ball to Antonio Brown that could’ve equaled the numbers.
The touchdown prediction was off, but that’s to be expected. Touchdowns can very greatly in the NFL, for example in that four week span, Roethlisberger threw zero touchdowns in week three and then threw five the following week.
Antonio Brown
| 2016 – 4 games | 2016 projection | 2016 actual | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards | 369 | 1,383 | 1,284 | (99) |
| Receptions | 28 | 105 | 106 | (1) |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 15 | 12 | (3) |
It’s almost shocking how close Antonio Browns projected stats were to his actual.
Similarly to Roethlisberger, touchdowns were fairly off but yards and receptions were almost spot on. This shows that projecting Brown’s stats from four games paints a solid picture of what’s to come.
Le’Veon Bell
| 2016 – 4 games | 2016 projection | 2016 actual | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 344 | 1,032 | 1,268 | (236) |
| Catches | 30 | 90 | 75 | (15) |
| Yards from scrimmage | 589 | 1,767 | 1,884 | (117) |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 8 | (8) |
Le’Veon Bell’s stats are the most far off among these three. When looking at his game logs though it makes sense because Bell had some huge games in the latter half of the season including his 298 yard day in Buffalo.
2017 projections
Now that we’ve seen that projecting season stats based on four games can predict certain stats pretty well, let’s take a look at how some players are projected to finish the 2017 season through 16 games.
Ben Roethlisberger
| 4 games | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards | 957 | 3,828 |
| Completions | 87 | 348 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 24 |
| Pass rating avg | 90.7 | 90.7 |
While not close to his near 5,000 yard season in 2014, 3,825 passing yards goes along with Ben Roethlisberger’s yards over the past two seasons – 3,938 and 3,819.
However, no one should doubt Ben’s ability to surpass 4,000 yards this season. The Steelers offense has been on the brink of exploding and if it is able to reach it’s potential than Ben’s numbers could skyrocket. When taking into consideration the Steelers offense and his weapons, while a fair prediction, Ben should be able to pass this projected total.
Le’Veon Bell
| 4 games | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 324 | 1,296 |
| Catches | 17 | 68 |
| Yards from scrimmage | 422 | 1,688 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 12 |
Isn’t it odd how 1,688 yards from scrimmage can be considered a “down year” for Le’Veon Bell?
These projected numbers are ones Bell should have no problem surpassing. He started the season slowly, but has been gradually improving each week. Versus the Ravens, he finally had his breakout game when he accumulated 186 total yards.
If Bell can continue to play like he did last week, and the Steelers continue to make him a focal point in this offense, he should have no problem beating out his projected numbers.
Antonio Brown
| 4 games | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards | 388 | 1552 |
| Receptions | 30 | 120 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 4 |
Like Bell, while Antonio Brown had a great season in 2016 with 1,284 yards, it is still considered a “down year” by some.
So far Brown is on pace to shatter that number. While his projected yards wouldn’t be his best season, that was in 2015 when he had 1,834 – 1,552 is nothing to scoff at. Brown has the potential to finish as the number one ranked in receptions in yards. In both categories, he’s currently sitting neck-and-neck at number two, three yards behind Stefon Diggs and one catch behind DeAndre Hopkins.
Considering the accuracy of the 2016 projection, its fair to predict Brown will end the season with roughly 1,600 yards and 120 catches.
Jesse James
| 4 games | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards | 127 | 508 |
| Receptions | 15 | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 8 |
While Jesse James’ projected stats aren’t as sexy as someone like Antonio Brown, his numbers project a very positive season for him.
Comparing to his 2016 season, his yards jump from 338 to 508, his catches jump from 38 to 60, and his touchdowns jump from 3 to 8. All these increases are clearly positive and show that James is growing as a receiver. Despite the acquisition of Vance McDonald, James has held onto his role as Ben’s safety valve and has been a reliable target throughout the season.
Martavis Bryant
| 4 games | Projection | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards | 183 | 732 |
| Receptions | 10 | 40 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 4 |
Martavis Bryant has had a solid season so far in 2016 but is yet to truly breakout. However that breakout could be coming soon as we saw Bryant have his best game of the season against the Ravens, and his day could’ve been even better had Ben not overthrew a deep ball that would’ve been a touchdown.
With the deep ball being his specialty, Bryant has the capability of crushing his projections. He just needs to get on the same page as Ben and not drop any touchdowns like he did in Chicago.
Even if he does stay on this pace though, 732 yards is still a very respectable season. That number would’ve been the second most among Steelers receivers in 2016.
