Steelers have the best path in AFC North to a division championship
It Ain’t Over ‘Til The Fat Lady Sings (And I Ain’t Heard No Fat Lady Singing)
Yes, I stole that from Will Smith in Independence Day (sort of).
Sue me. It fits, and it’s true.
I have heard the cries from the Nation:
“The season is over”
“We are doomed”
“Fire Tomlin”
You know the rest… and I am not getting into all that hate again… but I do want to address those first two sentiments.
The season ain’t over, and we are not yet doomed!
In fact, I would suggest exactly the opposite. Of the teams in the AFC North, I’m here to tell you that the Pittsburgh Steelers have the best, and most likely path to the playoffs!
No really! I mean it!
Look, let’s breakdown what remains of our schedule:
Right now, we are 1 game out of first place in our division, and our schedule is not imposing the rest of the way. Here is what we have left, including record of opponent.
| Opponent | Home/Away | Record | Projected Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | Away | 0-10 | Win (5-5) |
| Indianapolis | Away | 4-5 | Win (6-5) |
| NY Giants | Home | 6-3 | Loss (6-6) |
| Buffalo | Away | 4-5 | Win (7-6) |
| Cincinnati | Away | 3-5-1 | Win (8-6) |
| Baltimore | Home | 5-4 | Win (9-6) |
| Cleveland | Home | 0-10 | Win (10-6) |
We can (and should) beat the Browns twice. There is concern because we have 4 away games and only 3 home games, and we haven’t been a great road team so far. Still, I think we can pencil in wins in both Indy and Cleveland, and while Cincy in Cincy is no easy win, we have won there consistently. I believe we can beat the Giants and could go 7-0 down the stretch, but I am going to assume we lose that one or the Bills game; it feels more palatable to lose to the Giants at this point.
There is a monkey wrench that got thrown into this thinking today: Cam Heyward has a pectoral injury, and is out for the season:
I would like to thank everyone who has been in my corner this season. It pains me to say that I… https://t.co/c4FzsBDf6r
— Cam Heyward (@CamHeyward) November 15, 2016
The defense doesn’t have much depth on the line as it is, and that could spell trouble. Only time will tell, but the defense is not the same when Cam isn’t playing.
That could make this a bit of a tougher road to hoe, but let’s look at Cincy and Baltimore to see where they could end up. Oh, and yeah, Cleveland – NOT!
Ravens and Bengals upcoming schedules
Here is the Raven’s remaining schedule, and projections:
| Opponent | Home/Away | Record | Projected Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | Away | 8-1 | Loss (5-5) |
| Cincinnati | Home | 3-5-1 | Win (6-5) |
| Miami | Home | 5-4 | Loss (6-6) |
| New England | Away | 7-2 | Loss (6-7) |
| Philadelphia | Home | 5-4 | Loss (6-8) |
| Pittsburgh | Away | 4-5 | Loss (6-9) |
| Bengals | Away | 3-5-1 | Loss (6-10) |
And here are the Bengals:
| Opponent | Home/Away | Record | Projected Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | Home | 4-5 | Win (4-5-1) |
| Baltimore | Away | 5-4 | Loss (4-6-1) |
| Philadelphia | Home | 5-4 | Loss (4-7-1) |
| Cleveland | Away | 0-10 | Win (5-7-1) |
| Pittsburgh | Home | 4-5 | Loss (5-8-1) |
| Houston | Away | 6-3 | Loss (5-9-1) |
| Baltimore | Home | 5-4 | Win (6-9-1) |
The Bengals have won five straight against the Ravens; still I feel there is no reason to assume the Ravens can sweep the Bengals, or that the Bengals will sweep the Ravens. A split is reasonable.
Of the last seven games on the schedule, Ravens opponents have a combined record of 35-26-2, while the Bengals opponents are 29-35.
Pittsburgh’s last 7: 22-42-1 (including those 0-10 Browns twice.)
Baltimore is not a good team (and yes, I know, we lost to them already once, and I’m not going to re-examine that now) and I don’t see them winning against the Cowboys, New England, Philadelphia, or frankly, Miami. I think we will win when we have them at home on Christmas. That puts their final record at 6-10, and it could vary a game or two, but if we take care of December 25th, I believe that eliminates the Ravens.
The Bengals have stunk this season. If I have to pick a team that is underachieving worse than we are, it’s the Bengals. If you want to swing a game or two here, again, it doesn’t matter. The only gimme on their remaining schedule is Cleveland. They could lose every other game. I don’t think they will, but they could. Even at best, I don’t see them beating Philly, Houston, or us.
That eliminates the Bengals.
The division is actually sitting there waiting for us to win it. I think the honest truth is that if we take care of our division games, and win one or two others, we are set. Seriously, 9-7 will win our division this year, and I think we have the best path to that record, or even better.
Injuries will, as always, be the fly in the ointment. Nothing we can do about them, but man it will suck if the season gets derailed more so than it already has because of injury.
Once we get into the second season, we could be a scary team. Our offense will (hopefully) be at full strength, and hopefully the defense is more stable as well.
