Two words.

Vontaze Burfict.

That’s all any Steelers fan needs to hear, and emotions start to get stirred up.

Words like “dirty”, “cheap shot” and even less family friendly terms get thrown around.

I understand why.

Last year in a truly “wild” wild-card playoff game, Burfict clearly kneed Ben Roethlisberger after a sack, and tried to decapitate Antonio Brown.

But that’s not the only history he has with the Steelers.

It was also Mr. Burfict who ended Le’Veon Bell’s season last year during week 8, and it was also the Bengals, although not Burfict, who cut short Bell’s season in 2014.

The Bengals rivalry has heated up in the past few seasons, to the point that some of the Nation views them as the most hated team in the division, even over the Ravens.

(FYI – you’re all nuts – it’s always the Ravens!)

There is no denying it’s been nasty the past few games. The first game this season benefited from Burfict being suspended, and there was little or no controversy to be had.

That all changes Sunday at 1:00.

Surprising as it is to believe, the Bengals could still win the AFC North. All it would take is for them to win all their remaining games (Steelers, Houston, Ravens) which would allow them to end the year 8-7-1. Yes, they’d need help. To make this work, the Steelers would have to lose all their remaining games (thereby ending at 8-8), and the Ravens would have to lose to the Eagles, beat us and lose to the Bengals (also leaving them 8-8).

So, yeah, their chances are slim.

What it does mean is that Sunday is their last gasp, last hope, only chance to still find a way to sneak into the post season. It’s the definition of a must win game.

So what should we be looking for in this week’s match-up?

Let’s get to it Nation!

Ben in Ohio

It’s his home state. He went to college there, and he tends to win whenever he plays in Ohio.

Since 2004, Ben has lost twice in Cleveland, and twice in Cincinnati. The last time he lost there was in 2013, so he’s riding a 3-game winning streak in the Queen City (2 regular season wins, and one playoff win).

The thing is, despite the fact that Ben has always played well enough to win in Ohio, his road numbers this year are, well, a little worrisome.

In 7 road games he’s thrown 8 picks, and even in Pittsburgh he threw 2 against the Bengals. His QB rating on average in road games is 79.69 (and that’s including a huge 146 rating in Indy!).

At home it’s 115.76.

Last game his rating against the Bengals was 78.5.

Last week in Buffalo it was 37.8.

In his last 4 starts in Cincy, his QB rating has been 73.1, 118.5, 85.6 and 92. If you average those out, it’s a bit better than his average road numbers, but nowhere near his average home numbers.

He’s going to need to play more like “Ben at home” than “Ben on the Road” this weekend. I think he will, but the Bengals have a solid D-line, and better edge rushers than Buffalo had. Still, if the line plays like it has Ben, and keeps Ben upright and fairly clean – he should have a good game.

Hey – his kryptonite isn’t there anymore, now that Reggie Nelson is gone!

The Burfict Factor

Here is the funny thing about 2016 Vontaze Burfict vs. 2015 Vontaze Burfict – he’s not getting flagged for unsportsmanlike penalties this year.

Maybe that suspension had a little bit of impact?

Or maybe he just doesn’t want to give the commissioner more of his paycheck!

In fact, I tried to do a little research, and I couldn’t find a single penalty called on Burfict this season. That doesn’t necessarily mean we have a kinder, gentler Vontaze Burfict: just ask Martellus Bennett, whom Burfict went low on back in October.

There is certainly a chance that Burfict is trying his best to behave, and maybe, just maybe that will continue through this Sunday’s contest.

There is a saying about letting sleeping dogs lie, let’s hope this one stays asleep. The last thing we need is for Burfict to cause any lasting damage.

Ring the Bell

Maybe this is the year that Le’Veon makes it to the playoffs. Maybe this is the year that he finally is there in the second season, and the Steelers are operating with a little more juice than they have been in the last two post seasons.

They need Bell, there is no question about it. The offense runs through 7, but it also runs through 26.

Without Bell, if Ben is off, we are pretty much cooked.

With him, we still have a powerful weapon, and our offense remains dangerous.

The Bengals are not a great rushing defense: they rank 25^th in the league against the run. They should be a better rushing defense than Buffalo. Still, if the O-line plays the way they have been, Bell should have opportunities, and another good day.

The Steelers need to continue to Ring the Bell!

Keep Up the Pressure

The Defense has really started to gel, and they need to continue to do so. The Bengals have allowed the 5^th most sacks in the league this year (36 to this point), and I would like to see them continue to give em up. The Steelers have, over the last 4 games put up 18 sacks (8 vs. Cleveland, 3 vs. Indy, 2 vs. Giants and 5 vs. Bills). If my math is fight, that’s over 4 sacks per game on average.

That will work I think!

Artie had a nice game vs. the Bills, and looks like he’s getting better each and every game. We need him, and James Harrison to put the pressure on Dalton. Javon Hargrave is still in the concussion protocol, so if he can’t go then L.T. Walton, Dan McCullers and Ricardo Mathews will need to help Stephon Tuitt along the line, and have another game like they did last week.

The Bengals are without Giovani Bernard, but they still have Jeremy Hill, and they are making good use of Rex Burkhead, who had 45 yards rushing vs. the Browns (I know, it’s the Browns!) last week.

The defense needs to play the way they did for the first three quarters last week, except this time let’s try and keep that focus and intensity for all four quarters!

A.J. Green

The Bengals do get some good news this week, as there is a chance A.J. Green returns. He had a knee injury a few weeks back that didn’t turn out to be as bad as originally thought, and this is the week that he is (maybe) going to start practicing. If he does come back, he will be facing a better Steelers secondary than he faced in week 2.

Not that he killed us in week 2 – Ross Cockrell did a great job keeping A.J. off the books, allowing only 2 receptions, and no TD’s. Hell, Giovani Bernard was their number one receiver in that first game.

Green is a talent, but will he really be 100%? I don’t know, but I kind of doubt it. Yes, Tyler Boyd has gotten more reps, and Brandon LaFell is a decent receiver, but this isn’t a receiving corp that terrifies you, even with Green in the mix.

Just don’t forget about A.J. – make em beat us with Boyd or LaFell or someone else.

Conclusion

I think it’s fair to say that the Bengals team we played in week 2 was a better team than the one we are going to play tomorrow. They had all their weapons (except Tyler Eifert – let’s not forget him either!), and they had something else that I don’t think they have much of right now.

Hope.

This team is one loss away from ending their season. They have under-performed, and it’s (in my opinion) highly likely that Marvin Lewis is done when then the season ends.

How much do his players love and respect him? I

don’t know, so I have no idea if they even want to try and save his job.

But the one thing we can’t do Sunday is give them hope.

Yes, they hate us, and yes I am sure they would love to spoil our season. All those things are true. And it’s also true that once you have nothing to play for, you are susceptible to quitting. Is it worth it to chase AB around all day? Is it worth it to try and catch up to Le’Veon when DeCastro, Pouncey, and Big Al are pounding on you all afternoon?

I think we can break these guys. But not if we let them hang around, and not if we give them hope.

The Steelers have looked like a team that has focus and a plan over the past few weeks, and that needs to continue Sunday. If it does, we walk out of Cincy 9-5, and headed for a showdown on Christmas with the team we all should still be hating the most – the Ravens.

Until next time Nation!