Do the Steelers stand a chance against the Patriots this Sunday?

Why are people asking that question?

More specifically, why are Steelers fans asking this question?

Is it because this game, the AFC Championship game, is taking place at Gillette Stadium, the home of the New England Patriots, rather than Heinz Field?

I can understand the butterflies: the Patriots are 16-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, but that “3” stands out to me more, and more.

The Patriots lost this very game last season, albeit on the road, to a diminished Peyton Manning, who only completed 17 of his 32 pass attempts, and entered the Super Bowl as statistically, the worst QB to ever start in a Super Bowl.

The Patriots have also lost in their own building to back in 2010 to the New York Jets, who were led by Mark Sanchez… or the Patriots team which also lost at home in 2012 to Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens. Heck, let’s talk about an unbeaten Patriots team losing their only game, in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Heck, the Patriots have lost three of the last five AFC Championships they’ve played in. They aren’t invincible, and there are striking similarities in those playoffs losses: Tom Brady was rattled, and in Conference Championship games, he’s thrown as many touchdowns (12) as he’s thrown interceptions (12).

That could be the formula for the Steelers this coming Sunday, but why isn’t anyone giving them the benefit of the doubt? Here at Steel City Underground, we’ve already explored how Sunday’s Steelers team isn’t the same one the Patriots faced in Week 7. We also broke down how New England faced a number of backup and/or inexperienced quarterbacks (and running backs) on their way to a 14-win season.

Also consider, the Steelers haven’t lost to a single team they’ve had to play a second time this season.

All signs point toward a Patriots team, who despite still having Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, are realistically not the same team they even were one year ago. The franchise traded away pass rushers Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins, but no one noticed that New England was barely in the middle of the league in sacking opposing quarterbacks, finishing with 34 on the season.

The Steelers have had 31 during their 9-game win streak.

But that isn’t the biggest missing component for the Patriots’ success: that would be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, an elite tight end who may be the best in the league.

Many are asking who will step up as the number two receiver for the Steelers, but in my estimation, the Patriots are far worse off, still looking for that number one guy. Julian Edelman can fill that role at times, but he’s no Antonio Brown.

Aside from Edelman, a batch of gypsies such as Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Michael Floyd dot the WR depth chart, along with rookie Malcolm Mitchell. Amendola and Mitchell have seen their share of injuries, while Floyd, an intriguing prospect originally drafted in the first round by Arizona, has never lived up to his billing, with off-and-on performances (even within his short tenure with the Patriots).

The running backs feature the usual “never know who’s going to play” rotation made famous by Belichick teams. Dion Lewis is back, but has lost some playing time to James White. Both could lose snaps to LeGarrette Blount. None are tremendously overwhelming in the same manner as the Steelers Le’Veon Bell.

Then there’s the obvious fact that Ben Roethlisberger sat out their first meeting. As a future Hall of Famer in his own right, Big Ben is no stranger to big games, having played in three Super Bowls himself.

The tale of the tape reads like a seesaw battle that we expect on Sunday, yet, no one thinks of it this way. Is it that the Patriots have walked into these situations so many times (six straight to be exact) that very little thought is given to them bowing out of the postseason?

Is it that the Steelers are stockpiled with a number of little-known commodities who are making big strides, but have yet to “arrive” on the national scene, such as Bud Dupree, Ryan Shazier and Sean Davis?

I do believe it’s more of the latter, the unfamiliarity with what it is that Pittsburgh accomplished over the last nine games, which lends to their underdog billing. Even sports bettors realize this game could be a toss up, setting the line at +5.5 points for the Patriots: only the fifth time since 2011 that New England has been favored by 6 or fewer point in a home game featuring Tom Brady under center.

At the same time, it’s not as if the Killer B’s haven’t found success against New England in recent games.

Le’Veon Bell totaled 149 yards from scrimmage against the Patriots in Week 7.

In their last two encounters, Antonio Brown has 15 receptions for 236 yards and a touchdown… and that was without Ben playing in one of them.

Another interesting tidbit is how the Patriots don’t give up rushing yards to individual backs, having not surrendered a 90+ rushing game to a single runner in their last 24 games, and in only 2 of their last 35.

One of the players to do that, and to have the most yards?

DeAngelo Williams, in Week 1 of the 2015 season.

The statistics make me cautiously optimistic, if for only one other reason: in the last two games in which the Steelers have faced the Patriots, they have done so without one of their “big three” of Ben, Bell or Brown. Bell missed the 2015 Week 1 game, while Ben missed this season’s match-up in Week 7.

AB also left the Week 7 game with a quad injury, out-snapped by Darrius Heyward-Bey.

If that doesn’t point the needle toward Pittsburgh’s favor, I’m not sure what else will. Having all three Killer B’s on the field at the same time not only passes a statistics test, but it also passes the eyeball test.

Yet, the only test which matters is that of which the Steelers will take on Sunday: when they face the New England Patriots.

My question for Steelers Nation now, is do you believe Pittsburgh has a chance?


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